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LanDroid
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Joined: 11 Jun 2002
Posts: 4476
Location: Cincinnati, OH U.S.
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 Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:15 pm Post subject: PotM January '11 => Distributed Data Mining |
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What an interesting election! Eight projects received 1 vote, Edges received 2, and the winner Distributed Data Mining received 4 votes...
| Quote: | distributedDataMining (dDM) is the name of a research project that uses Internet-connected computers to perform research in the various fields of Data Analysis and Machine Learning.
Time Series Analysis
The research area called Time Series Analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics, rules and patterns. These rules and patterns might be used to build forecasting models that are able to predict future developments.
Stock Price Prediction (on-going)
In this case study, we try to improve time series forecasting methods. In 2006, we started the analysis of Stock Market Data by using Artificial Neural Networks [5]. The results were published as book [6]. Later on, we could improve our results by applying Support Vector Machines[7]. In 2009, we started testing standard machine learning algorithm to build forecast models for Dow Jones, S&P500, German Stock Index and NIKKEI index. In addition, we try to extend existing approaches and develop new forecasting methods. Thereby, we will focus on aspects of temporal pattern evolution.
http://www.distributeddatamining.org/ |
Starting Stats:
19th Place
271,572 Points
932 RAC
716 Points crunched yesterday
Server Status: All green
20K WU's ready to send
Forums:
http://www.distributeddatamining.org/Forum |
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Gemjunkie
Prince
Joined: 03 Jul 2010
Posts: 3519
Location: Earth, lately
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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OK, from BOINC manager I opened 'Attach to Project', it's not listed, the link to dDM:
http://www.distributeddatamining.org/
says nothing about how to attach to or run this project, entering this address in the 'Attach' wizard responds that it's not a BOINC project. 
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stooper101
Prince
Joined: 16 May 2009
Posts: 1248
Location: Cheese Country
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 5:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Gemjunkie wrote: | OK, from BOINC manager I opened 'Attach to Project', it's not listed, the link to dDM:
http://www.distributeddatamining.org/
says nothing about how to attach to or run this project, entering this address in the 'Attach' wizard responds that it's not a BOINC project. |
It's in the "Supporting dDM" page. Here's the link to enter into BM: http://www.distributeddatamining.org/DistributedDataMining
Everybody, don't forget to join the team!
edit: update, I successfully signed-on but am unable to get work. Even though server status (http://www.distributeddatamining.org/DistributedDataMining/server_status.php) shows plenty of work.
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Gemjunkie
Prince
Joined: 03 Jul 2010
Posts: 3519
Location: Earth, lately
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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I attached but the team page didn't have a 'Join' button.
Strange
I switched to another shrubber where it worked normally.
Have a Happy New Year!
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LanDroid
Prince
Joined: 11 Jun 2002
Posts: 4476
Location: Cincinnati, OH U.S.
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| Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:28 am Post subject: |
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Anyone know what these messages mean? DDM asking client for interim results?
DistributedDataMining Sending scheduler request: Requested by project.
DistributedDataMining Sending scheduler request: To send trickle-up message. |
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stooper101
Prince
Joined: 16 May 2009
Posts: 1248
Location: Cheese Country
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| Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:10 am Post subject: |
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Sounds like the same thing that Climate does. Partially thru a WU, the project gets partial data and you get partial credit. WU will continue and you will eventually get all credit if you complete all of the WU. It's a way of getting something even if the WU fails later on.
By the way, got some WUs for my machine now, just need to clear out some other projects.
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Hal9000x86
Baron
Joined: 06 Apr 2010
Posts: 217
Location: The 10 milllion year project that will find the question to the answer 42.
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 2:02 am Post subject: |
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I have not cruched seti@home for a while, but is it normal to get up to 50k in pending? Its around 450 pending wus right now.
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Idan
UN-Smitten
Joined: 07 Dec 2005
Posts: 2993
Location: Tel-Aviv, Israel
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 3:52 am Post subject: |
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Regarding to Distributed Datamining.
It seems that the windows application they have is only for "Stock Price Prediction", something which I find totally useless to run on my Windows CPUs when I can run something that can actually help science.
I only have one Linux machine which can run the other DTM application: "Medical Data Analysis" which I'll happily crunch.
Sorry for not participating with my Windows machines, It's nothing personal 
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Gemjunkie
Prince
Joined: 03 Jul 2010
Posts: 3519
Location: Earth, lately
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 4:19 am Post subject: |
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I have one shrubber with no credit after 30 hrs. it shows no tasks in progress or completed for this shrubber on the website.
~10hrs. ago
<2hrs ago
I agree. What's with the stock market predictions? Who's benefiting from this research?
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LanDroid
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Location: Cincinnati, OH U.S.
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 7:01 am Post subject: |
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I look at this project as an academic exercise to determine if it is possible to build a forecasting model for a system as complex as a stock market. A prominent "random walk" theory says this is not possible. See discussions below - I'm finding this more interesting than some other projects KWSN crunches and I don't think anyone is "benefiting" (as in getting rich) from this research.
| Quote: | Stock price prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. Some researchers believe that stock price movements are governed by the random walk hypothesis and thus are unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess a myriad of methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.
Well, obviously the dDM founder is one of them who believe in the possibility of building successful forecasting systems - otherwise Stock Price Prediction wouldn't be a topic here.
http://www.distributeddatamining.org/StockPricePrediction |
Please check out random walk vs. non-random walk here:
| Quote: | Burton G. Malkiel, an economist professor at Princeton University and writer of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, performed a test where his students were given a hypothetical stock that was initially worth fifty dollars. The closing stock price for each day was determined by a coin flip. If the result was heads, the price would close a half point higher, but if the result was tails, it would close a half point lower. Thus, each time, the price had a fifty-fifty chance of closing higher or lower than the previous day. Cycles or trends were determined from the tests. Malkiel then took the results in a chart and graph form to a chartist, a person who “seeks to predict future movements by seeking to interpret past patterns on the assumption that ‘history tends to repeat itself’”.[5] The chartist told Malkiel that they needed to immediately buy the stock.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis |
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Gemjunkie
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Hal9000x86 wrote: | | I have not cruched seti@home for a while, but is it normal to get up to 50k in pending? Its around 450 pending wus right now. |
Your wingmen on those are probably using the CPU client. There was a thread on reporting errors if the numbers of WU's gets too large, something about a timeout searching for WU's to calculate pending credit on the Seti forums.
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Idan
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Joined: 07 Dec 2005
Posts: 2993
Location: Tel-Aviv, Israel
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| Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 2:56 am Post subject: |
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One Medical Data Analysis WU hanged on 6.339% , I let it run a few hours before aborting it, better be on the lookout, those WUs are looney!
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Gemjunkie
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Location: Earth, lately
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| Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:51 am Post subject: |
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Perfect. 
I aborted all WU's on the shrubber their loonie server doesn't acknowledge, detached and reattached.
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LanDroid
Prince
Joined: 11 Jun 2002
Posts: 4476
Location: Cincinnati, OH U.S.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:42 pm Post subject: |
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KWSN are # 1 in crunching so far today and we have 5 iron helmets in the top ten: Ohiomike, Al Dente, Gemjunkie, Mildew, and Sir Stooper. We crunched 45K yesterday and should easily beat that today.
All this could generate some attention in this sleepy little project - anyone worth taunting?
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stooper101
Prince
Joined: 16 May 2009
Posts: 1248
Location: Cheese Country
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| Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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| LanDroid wrote: | | ... and we have 5 iron helmets in the top ten: Ohiomike, Al Dente, Gemjunkie, Mildew, and Sir Stooper... |
Iron?!? I was told it was grey-painted gold, encrusted with jewels and the jewels were hidden in the horns underneath other jewels!
[scratches helmet with screwdriver] False advertising! 
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Hal9000x86
Baron
Joined: 06 Apr 2010
Posts: 217
Location: The 10 milllion year project that will find the question to the answer 42.
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| Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:55 am Post subject: |
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| Gemjunkie wrote: | | Hal9000x86 wrote: | | I have not cruched seti@home for a while, but is it normal to get up to 50k in pending? Its around 450 pending wus right now. |
Your wingmen on those are probably using the CPU client. There was a thread on reporting errors if the numbers of WU's gets too large, something about a timeout searching for WU's to calculate pending credit on the Seti forums. |
I'll check it out thanks. I'm up to 62k pending now hehe.
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John Galt 007
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Location: Wisconsin
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Al Dente
Prince
Joined: 23 Feb 2006
Posts: 3228
Location: Leodis, the jewel at the end of the yellow brick road (or M1)
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| Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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We could do quite well on this one. Not only are we top crunchers, we're at 3x the #2 team (Sicituradasra.)
We've already moved up 2 places (Russia & BOINC@MIXI), and at our current rate (75k today), we should be able to get up to 6th.
In the firing line are:
16. Canada (should be past them already) 
15. UK BOINC Team
14. AMD Users
13. XtremeSystems
12. MGOKSiR@Trzebinia
11. Xtrem Team Boinc Addicted
10. BOINC@Poland
9. PBToyz
8. BOINC@AUSTRALIA
7. Czech National Team
6. Team Starfire World BOINC
& if we up the pace a bit more . 
5. BOINCstats are a possibility
Take your pick on the tauntage front.
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  . . My Milestones . . My Full BOINC list |
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LanDroid
Prince
Joined: 11 Jun 2002
Posts: 4476
Location: Cincinnati, OH U.S.
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:22 am Post subject: |
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I was going to suggest the UK Boinc Team for tauntage, but we just passed them too! KWSN shrubbed 100K yesterday and have moved up to 15th place already.
Milestones:
The Knights Who Say Ni! passed 500,000
ohiomike passed 60,000
John Galt 007 passed 40,000
mildew passed 30,000
Gemjunkie passed 30,000
LanDroid passed 3,000 |
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John Galt 007
Prince
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Location: Wisconsin
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